{
  "id": 10694273,
  "title": "Oil and gas industry expected surplus – but war brought shortage instead",
  "url": "https://urgent.news/2026/09/29/oil-and-gas-industry-expected-surplus-but-war-brought-shortage-instead",
  "topic": "world",
  "section": "World",
  "published": "2026-09-29T12:45:38.000Z",
  "source": {
    "name": "The Conversation",
    "slug": "the-conversation",
    "url": "https://theconversation.com/oil-and-gas-industry-expected-surplus-but-war-brought-shortage-instead-292406"
  },
  "original_language": "en",
  "account": "In 2023, the International Energy Agency predicted that by 2028, oil companies would produce more oil than could be purchased, leading to record-high fuel prices. However, the Strait of Hormuz, a crucial route for Middle Eastern oil, was almost entirely blocked in March 2026 due to U.S. and Israeli attacks on Iran. This sudden blockade left the global economy without a means to quickly restore the flow of oil and gas. Several countries had strategic reserves, but releasing them did not significantly replenish the oil supply in the long-term, potentially leading to increased demand for oil in the future. A joint report by Hiroyasu Sakaguchi and the researcher of this story, published by the Trilateral Energy Security Committee, warned that even with an oversupply of oil, the global buffer for disruption is quite fragile. The ongoing conflict has led to a surge in oil prices, causing fuel shortages and driving up the cost of gasoline, diesel, fertilizer, food, and consumer goods. Iraq has resorted to trucking oil across Syria to load it onto ships at Syrian ports. The mismatch between supply and demand in the oil market can be traced back to long-range projections made by governments, companies, and research agencies, which take around 20 years to materialize. These projections are based on various scenarios, such as economic growth, technology adoption, and policy changes, and can yield vastly different results. Despite forecasts sometimes coming close to reality, the further ahead they look, the more prone they are to errors, both due to small inaccuracies and unexpected global events. Oil forecasts have historically underestimated demand and failed to predict the rise of electric vehicles, which, while popular in some countries, have not significantly reduced overall fuel consumption due to the continued heavy use of diesel-powered vehicles.",
  "summary": "Any work to ease current shortages and price hikes while the Strait of Hormuz remains closed will take years and billions of dollars.",
  "key_points": [],
  "editors_take": null,
  "illustration": null,
  "coverage": {
    "outlets": 1,
    "also_reported_by": []
  },
  "ai_generated": true,
  "disclaimer": "Summaries, key points and the editor’s take are written by software from other outlets’ reporting and may contain errors — always check the linked original."
}