{
  "id": 10451141,
  "title": "US Dollar: Fed hiking path and data risks – TD Securities",
  "url": "https://urgent.news/2026/09/28/us-dollar-fed-hiking-path-and-data-risks-td-securities",
  "topic": "finance",
  "section": "Finance & Markets",
  "published": "2026-09-28T13:20:54.000Z",
  "source": {
    "name": "FXStreet",
    "slug": "fxstreet",
    "url": "https://www.fxstreet.com/news/us-dollar-fed-hiking-path-and-data-risks-td-securities-202609281320"
  },
  "original_language": "en",
  "account": "TD Securities economists anticipate an October Federal Reserve hike, citing hawkish Fedspeak and expectations of further rate increases. They point to robust PCE inflation, modest manufacturing gains, and a softer-than-expected jobs report as factors influencing their outlook. The team expects two additional Fed hikes, with decisions driven by inflation data and labor market resilience. This week's Fedspeak is expected to mirror the hawkish tone from last week, with key speakers including Waller, Jefferson, Cook, and Kashkari. PCE inflation is anticipated to reflect strong August CPI and PPI reports, with headline inflation at 0.38% m/m (3.8% y/y) and core inflation at 0.32% m/m (3.4% y/y). The focus will be on the BEA's annual revisions, as Y/y inflation may not be revised lower as much as markets anticipate. Spending is projected to grow to 0.9% (0.5% real) due to robust retail sales. The Fed is expected to implement two more rate hikes in October and January, despite above-target inflation and growing risks. However, the labor market has stabilized with signs of strengthening, and activity data has been positive. The economy can absorb further tightening, and the Fed's actions now reflect the evolving inflation data.",
  "summary": "TD Securities economists Oscar Munoz and Eli Nir see an October Federal Reserve hike as increasingly likely, with Fedspeak remaining hawkish and officials “expecting more hikes.” They highlight strong PCE inflation, modest ISM Manufacturing gains, and a softer September NFP with higher unemployment.",
  "key_points": [
    "TD Securities anticipates October Fed hike, citing hawkish Fedspeak and inflation data",
    "PCE inflation expected to reflect strong August CPI and PPI reports",
    "Fed expected to implement two more rate hikes in October and January"
  ],
  "editors_take": null,
  "illustration": null,
  "coverage": {
    "outlets": 1,
    "also_reported_by": []
  },
  "ai_generated": true,
  "disclaimer": "Summaries, key points and the editor’s take are written by software from other outlets’ reporting and may contain errors — always check the linked original."
}