{
  "id": 10166509,
  "title": "Faisal Islam: The two big calls the chancellor has to make ahead of the Budget",
  "url": "https://urgent.news/2026/09/26/faisal-islam-the-two-big-calls-the-chancellor-has-to-make-ahead-of-10166509",
  "topic": "finance",
  "section": "Finance & Markets",
  "published": "2026-09-26T23:00:42.000Z",
  "source": {
    "name": "BBC Business",
    "slug": "bbc-business",
    "url": "https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cklye5e40531o?at_medium=RSS&at_campaign=rss"
  },
  "original_language": "en",
  "account": "John Healey, the Chancellor, admitted to me that there has been too much doom-mongering in recent discussions. Despite conflicts, uncertainty, rising inflation and interest rates, Healey insisted that there are strong reasons to be confident about Britain's future. The Chancellor is now facing two significant decisions before his inaugural Budget on October 28th. The first involves the longevity of economic pressures caused by the Iran War, while the second is about sustaining a modest uptick in economic spirits amid further global turbulence.\n\nJust over two months ago, the oil price dropped to $75 a barrel, and the 10-year government bond yield was 4.9%. Now, the oil price is hovering above $100, and the 10-year yield has risen to around 5.4%. This double whammy for the Chancellor is unusual, as such energy shocks often quickly reverse, as seen earlier this summer when de-escalation talks between the US and Iran led to sharp declines in energy prices and yields.\n\nThe upcoming US midterm elections on November 3rd, just six days after the Budget, add complexity to the situation. Both President Trump and Iranian President Pezeshkian suggested that the war might end before the elections, as the war's impact on the cost of living could harm their electoral prospects. Furthermore, the Iranian president stated that his nation doesn't want the war to last until the midterms.\n\nThe Chancellor must decide whether to plan for the worst, making painful permanent tax and spend decisions, or buy some time by tolerating a reduction in the £24bn of borrowing headroom left by his predecessor, Rachel Reeves. One option is to let borrowing take some of the strain, while the other is to focus on improving consumer and business morale through the Chancellor's optimistic approach.",
  "summary": "He must consider the longevity of Iran war economic pressures and how to sustain modest optimism, writes the BBC's Faisal Islam.",
  "key_points": [],
  "editors_take": null,
  "illustration": null,
  "coverage": {
    "outlets": 1,
    "also_reported_by": []
  },
  "ai_generated": true,
  "disclaimer": "Summaries, key points and the editor’s take are written by software from other outlets’ reporting and may contain errors — always check the linked original."
}