{
  "id": 10132843,
  "title": "Inflation seen slowing to 10.75pc in September",
  "url": "https://urgent.news/2026/09/27/inflation-seen-slowing-to-10-75pc-in-september-10132843",
  "topic": "finance",
  "section": "Finance & Markets",
  "published": "2026-09-27T03:32:05.000Z",
  "source": {
    "name": "Dawn Business",
    "slug": "dawn-business",
    "url": "https://www.dawn.com/news/2032971/inflation-seen-slowing-to-1075pc-in-september"
  },
  "original_language": "en",
  "account": "Inflation in Pakistan is expected to decelerate in September, despite the uncertainty brought about by the ongoing Gulf war. Financial experts anticipate oil prices to hover between $90 and $100 per barrel during the latter part of September and into October. However, tensions have escalated following US President Donald Trump's rejection of Iran's proposal, raising fears that US retaliation could drive oil prices upwards. Analysts predict oil prices may stabilize around $100 per barrel if hostilities resume. Pakistan's heavy reliance on oil imports (70%) means that fluctuations in oil prices significantly impact inflation. Official figures show that Pakistan's headline inflation accelerated to 11.1% year-on-year in August, up from 9.2% in July 2026. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) for September is projected to climb 10.25-10.75% year-on-year, a decrease from August's 11.1%. This projection is marginally lower than August's figure but not a substantial decrease. The rising cost of petrol, now at its highest in the region, with India increasing prices by 10%, Bangladesh by 16%, and Pakistan by over 50%, has contributed to the increase in inflation. Money market expert S.S. Iqbal warns that accurately gauging the exact inflation figure for September is challenging due to the fluctuating oil prices, both globally and locally. With inflation projected to stay at 10.25-10.75% in September, real interest rates could drop to 75-125 basis points, a significant drop from Pakistan's typical range of 200-300 basis points. Other cost components, including electricity, housing, food, and construction, have also seen price hikes, suggesting a potential rise in inflation beyond analysts' projections, especially if the Gulf war persists. Meanwhile, Pakistan, Turkey, and Saudi Arabia are gearing up to counter a potential conflict involving the Houthis and the kingdom, adding to the uncertainty surrounding oil prices and supplies. While Pakistan's foreign exchange reserves exceed $21.4 billion, providing some protection against higher oil import costs, they may not insulate the economy entirely from inflationary pressures if the conflict continues and international energy prices remain high.",
  "summary": "KARACHI: Some stakeholders and analysts expect inflation in September to slow despite the high uncertainty caused by the ongoing Gulf war. The financial sector expects oil prices to remain between $90 and $100 per barrel during the remaining days of September and in October. However, the situation has once again changed after US President Donald Trump announced on Saturday that he had rejected…",
  "key_points": [],
  "editors_take": null,
  "illustration": null,
  "coverage": {
    "outlets": 6,
    "also_reported_by": [
      {
        "outlet": "Reserve Bank of India",
        "title": "RBI to conduct Overnight Variable Rate Reverse Repo (VRRR) auction under LAF on September 28, 2026",
        "url": "https://urgent.news/2026/09/25/rbi-to-conduct-overnight-variable-rate-reverse-repo-vrrr-auction",
        "published": "2026-09-25T13:56:40.000Z"
      },
      {
        "outlet": "Agencia Brasil",
        "title": "Brazil: September preliminary inflation rate stands at 0.70%",
        "url": "https://urgent.news/2026/09/25/brazil-september-preliminary-inflation-rate-stands-at-0-70",
        "published": "2026-09-25T15:44:00.000Z"
      },
      {
        "outlet": "The Hill",
        "title": "Consumer confidence dips in September amid inflation concerns",
        "url": "https://urgent.news/2026/09/25/consumer-confidence-dips-in-september-amid-inflation-concerns",
        "published": "2026-09-25T20:39:43.000Z"
      },
      {
        "outlet": "Business Recorder",
        "title": "Pakistan September inflation seen easing but energy pressures persist",
        "url": "https://urgent.news/2026/09/26/pakistan-september-inflation-seen-easing-but-energy-pressures-persist",
        "published": "2026-09-26T07:07:22.000Z"
      },
      {
        "outlet": "Dawn",
        "title": "Inflation seen slowing to 10.75pc in September",
        "url": "https://urgent.news/2026/09/27/inflation-seen-slowing-to-10-75pc-in-september",
        "published": "2026-09-27T03:32:05.000Z"
      }
    ]
  },
  "ai_generated": true,
  "disclaimer": "Summaries, key points and the editor’s take are written by software from other outlets’ reporting and may contain errors — always check the linked original."
}