{
  "id": 10088014,
  "title": "Here’s how much worse U.S. debt could get as Treasury yields surge to the highest levels in two decades",
  "url": "https://urgent.news/2026/09/26/heres-how-much-worse-u-s-debt-could-get-as-treasury-yields-surge-to",
  "topic": "finance",
  "section": "Finance & Markets",
  "published": "2026-09-26T22:39:52.000Z",
  "source": {
    "name": "Fortune",
    "slug": "fortune",
    "url": "https://fortune.com/2026/09/26/us-debt-outlook-cbo-10-year-treasury-bond-yields-highest-two-decades/"
  },
  "original_language": "en",
  "account": "Treasury yields have surged to their highest levels in two decades, prompting concerns among lawmakers. The 10-year yield reached 5.23% on Friday, the highest since 2007, and the 30-year yield hit 5.49%, the peak since 2004. Factors contributing to the increase include rising oil prices due to Middle East tensions, AI hyperscaler spending, and a hotter economy. The U.S. debt now stands at $40 trillion. The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) had projected yields to be lower, at 4.1% for the 10-year in 2023 and 4.4% from 2032 to 2036. However, the current situation has escalated annual interest expenses on the debt to $1 trillion, with the budget deficit forecasted to reach $2 trillion this year. Sen. Jeff Merkley requested updated figures from the CBO, leading to a scenario analysis in which interest rates rise by 1 percentage point. The CBO estimates that this would increase the primary deficit by 0.4 percentage point by 2056, but the total deficit would be 4.9 percentage points higher. This would make the total deficit 14% of GDP, up from 5.8% this fiscal year and the 3.8% average from 1976 to 2025. Publicly held debt would also soar to 222% of GDP by 2056, compared to 101% today. The CBO warns that GDP growth could slow by 0.1 percentage point due to the debt burden, making it challenging for the U.S. to grow its way out of the debt. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent suggests that growth would need to hit 3% for this scenario to be accurate. The CBO further warns that macroeconomic effects could exacerbate the situation, pushing interest rates even higher. They present an alternative scenario where the debt-to-GDP ratio remains at 101%, resulting in a smaller primary deficit, total deficit, and publicly held debt, as well as slightly higher GDP growth.",
  "summary": "Publicly held debt would explode to 222% of GDP by 2056, under a scenario where interest rates rise by 1 percentage point.",
  "key_points": [],
  "editors_take": null,
  "illustration": null,
  "coverage": {
    "outlets": 1,
    "also_reported_by": []
  },
  "ai_generated": true,
  "disclaimer": "Summaries, key points and the editor’s take are written by software from other outlets’ reporting and may contain errors — always check the linked original."
}